Comparative advantages for maize, oat, and wheat cropping under climate change

What is it about?

We analyzed the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45–65°N) and provide model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively.

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Why is it important?

In many climate impact assessments it is assumed that crop shares (the share of a specific crop on total growing area) are not affected by changing climate. Here we try to improve these assessments by estimating crop shares under climate change based on spatial patterns in crop shares and climate variables observed today.