The thin red line between success and failure: Path dependence in the diffusion of innovative production technologies

What is it about?

Innovations are new and advanced products, which makes them difficult to understand and compare. This means that minor differences in how innovative products get started can make a big difference in the market success, and can even overwhelm the actual quality difference. Here we trace the success of the DC-10 back to a random early lead in purchases over the competing L-1011 aircraft. The two aircraft serve nearly identical needs, but later accidents showed that the DC-10 had design problems that were not found in L-1011.

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Why is it important?

This is a pioneering piece of research showing why early success says less about quality than people often think.