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What is it about?

What's Different About Our Study We're not the first to try and predict prices, but we're doing something unique. We're using a technique called Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), which helps us see patterns in the data. But we didn't stop there. We combined SSA with various Machine Learning methods for making predictions. Some of these methods are really good at dealing with complicated patterns in the data.

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Why is it important?

Why This Matters Okay, so why does predicting the price of corn, soybeans, and sugar in Brazil matter so much? Well, think about it. Farmers need to decide when to plant and harvest their crops. Businesses that use these ingredients in their products need to plan their budgets. And for you, the consumer, these prices can affect how much you pay for everyday items like bread, snacks, and even the sugar you put in your coffee. By being able to predict these prices accurately, we're helping everyone involved make better decisions. Farmers can plan their harvests better, businesses can set their prices more reasonably, and you can budget more effectively.

Perspectives

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In a nutshell, our study is all about finding smarter ways to predict the prices of corn, soybeans, and sugar in Brazil. We've combined a bunch of methods, and our results show that our approach works really well. This can have a big impact on how farms and businesses operate and how much you pay for the things you need.

Ph.D. Rafael Palazzi
Fundacao Getulio Vargas

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Forecasting commodity prices in Brazil through hybrid SSA-complex seasonality models, Production, January 2023, FapUNIFESP (SciELO),
DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20220025.
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