Using epidemic models to reassess the Antonine Plague’s mortality in ancient Rome

What is it about?

Our study uses SIR/SEIR models to test different pathogen scenarios for the Antonine Plague in ancient Rome. The results suggest that historical mortality estimates may have been exaggerated. Since our models do not fully reproduce reported death tolls, factors like seasonality or reporting biases may have influenced ancient records.

Featured Image

Photo by Chelms Varthoumlien on Unsplash

Photo by Chelms Varthoumlien on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The Antonine Plague is considered one of the deadliest pandemics in Roman history, yet its true impact remains uncertain. By applying modern epidemiological models, we provide a quantitative approach to test different disease hypotheses. Our results suggest that traditional historical sources may have overestimated mortality, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary approaches in historical epidemiology.

Perspectives

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Studying historical pandemics with modern modeling tools is both challenging and fascinating. This research was an opportunity to explore how ancient narratives compare with epidemiological simulations. While our findings suggest that mortality estimates may have been exaggerated, they also highlight the complexity of reconstructing past pandemics.

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