Is another wave coming? Using math to understand surges in COVID-19 cases

What is it about?

The United States is one of the countries that was hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic. At first, the government enforced lockdowns and masks to try and control the spread of the disease. Later, most states relaxed their rules. This led to new waves of COVID cases in these states. The authors of this study developed a mathematical framework to identify turning points during the pandemic. 'Turning points' were events that influenced a change in statewide COVID-19 cases. They marked the beginning and end of surges. So, researchers could tell whether a state was experiencing a second surge, or not.

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Photo by Gabriella Clare Marino on Unsplash

Photo by Gabriella Clare Marino on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Knowing when, how, and why COVID-19 surges happened will help governments put the right policies in place at the right time in future. The framework developed in this project: 1. Shows how the pandemic evolved throughout the United States over time 2. Helps identify events that caused surges 3. Shows how effective different states' policies were in controlling the spread of COVID-19. The framework helps to predict how future pandemics might unfold, which will countries around the world manage future crises. KEY TAKEAWAY: This paper introduced a framework to identify and understand COVID-19 surges. This information will pave the way for better, more timely policies. This could help future pandemic management.