Illusion of control or passive superstition? A comparison of two explanations for irrational gambling beliefs.

What is it about?

When gambling having the ability to choose your own options is believed to increase senses of control over winning even if choice has no effect on the likelihood of the outcome. Although this idea is well established recent findings challenge the effect choice really has on gambling thinking and decision-making. We extend this challenge by looking at other predictors of false probability beliefs in a simple lottery game where people are given one of three boxes and can either choose the box themselves or have it selected for them. The previous study found having choice did not increase peoples estimation of the likelihood of a prize being behind their box, showing choice did not affect gambling beliefs. In our study we found this effect but also predicted the people who had incorrect beliefs (estimates beyond 1/3 chance per box). People who had greater problematic gambling behaviors/beliefs were more likely to say each box did not have 1/3 chance each of winning (false belief) as well as people who scored higher in having a type of superstitious belief whereby you believe a force that is not you has an illusory effect on outcomes (passive superstition). This could mean that superstitions over having choice may be more relevant in understanding why some people develop problems with gambling and why people have false beliefs about probability when gambling.

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Photo by Alejandro Garay on Unsplash

Photo by Alejandro Garay on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Lots of treatments and theories of problem gambling are centered around the idea that gambling problems are associated with irrational gambling beliefs. This includes beliefs like that having choice increases your likelihood of winning (when in fact it is purely luck-based) which is believed to increase irrational gambling behavior. Our work provides an alternative explanation that superstitious beliefs may be more relevant in driving irrational beliefs and decision-making. Therefore superstitions could be more of a focus in treatments for problem gambling by addressing the source of irrational beliefs. However, the research cannot yet say if superstition actually increases problem gambling risk itself or if it is a result of problem gambling.