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Why is it important?
The northern goshawk is a resident of conifer, broadleaf, and mixed forests from the boreal to the southwestern montane regions of North America. We studied 125 goshawk breeding territories, representing ~87% of an estimated 144 total territories established on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona (1,728 km2). The salient demographic feature of the population was extensive annual variation in breeding which was reflected in large variation in the proportion of pairs laying eggs, brood sizes, nest failure rates, and fledgling production. This variation in reproduction was found through longitudinal modeling to closely tracked variation in precipitation, which we hypothesized drove primary forest productivity and bird and mammal prey abundance. Estimates of population growth rates provided weak evidence for a population decline over the 20-year study period (1991-2010).
Perspectives
If the century-long decline in precipitation persists, especially at the increased rate seen since 1980, and manifests as deeper droughts, diminished wet periods, and weaker pulses in forest productivity, then the Kaibab Plateau goshawk population would be expected to show unambiguous evidence of decline. Evidence would include reduced local and regional goshawk reproduction and survival, reduced frequency of immigration, and further habitat loss to catastrophic fire.
Dr. Curtis H. Flather
U.S. Forest Service
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Long-term demography of the Northern Goshawk in a variable environment, Wildlife Monographs, April 2017, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1002/wmon.1023.
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