What is it about?
This research estimates the basic reproductive ratio (a measure of pandemic spread) for Middle East countries during two stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show that the ratio ranges from 1.5583 to 3.0395 in the first stage and from 1.0001 to 4.5757 in the second stage. Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic have particularly high ratios, indicating a concerning situation. However, the ratio for the second stage is close to one, suggesting that government measures may have been effective in controlling the spread.
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Why is it important?
The SEIR model and Runge-Kutta method were used to simulate R0 values based on recorded data up to May 29, 2020 and September 7, 2020. The estimated R0 values for the first stage ranged from 1.5583 to 3.0395, while for the second stage they ranged from 1.0001 to 4.5757. The study found that the problem of COVID-19 in Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic is particularly concerning, as their R0 values were higher compared to other Middle East countries. Additionally, the R0 value for the second stage was close to one, but it is expected to increase in future stages due to non-compliance with government measures.
Perspectives
The study focuses on estimating the basic reproductive ratio (R0) for the Middle East countries and some other countries for two stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Marwan Al-Raeei
Damascus University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The COVID-19 basic reproductive ratio using SEIR model for the Middle East countries and some other countries for two stages of the disease, Bulletin of the National Research Centre, June 2021, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1186/s42269-021-00572-4.
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