What is it about?
. This article covers a few basic topics. 1) Understanding billions and trillions. 2), 'Orphan' numbers. eg a quote from the UK Government stating they have invested an extra £1 billion in the NHS this year. Is this a large amount? Is in new money? 3) Problems with percentages. Eg if the numbers with COVID are doubling every five days, then after fifteen days the numbers will be eight times the baseline (not six) 4) Problems with ratios, eg using the Body Mass Index Arnold Swarzenegger and Tom cruise are obese 5) Problems with predictors. eg using Qrisk3 anyone over a certain age should be on statins, irrespective of their blood cholesterol
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Why is it important?
With the COVID-19 pandemic, the understanding of numbers put out by Governments and Health Authorities is important to everyone. Similarly ratios used by health professionals such as the QRisk3 need to be used with understanding.
Perspectives
I have taught statistics for 40 years and is has become apparent to me that even people highly qualified in other areas still make mistakes when it comes to statistics.
Mike Campbell
University of Sheffield
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Understanding basic numbers: examples from Bexit, Covid and common medical conditions, Research Methods in Medicine & Health Sciences, October 2020, SAGE Publications,
DOI: 10.1177/2632084320957201.
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