Offshoring and elections. Which parties do globalization winners and losers vote for?

What is it about?

This paper examines how offshoring, one important aspect of globalization, affects voting behavior. It shows that voters that benefit from the onshoring of jobs are more likely to vote for parties that champion market-liberal policies and are positioned on the right of the left-right continuum, and significantly less likely to vote for parties that champion for welfare state expansion. Voters whose jobs are threatened by offshoring have the opposite preferences. As a result, offshoring winners are more likely to vote for liberal and conservative parties, whereas offshoring losers are more likely to vote for left parties. In contrast, working in jobs that can easily be off- or onshored has no effect on voting for Green or populist right parties.

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Why is it important?

Much is being written about the effects of globalization on politics and the rise of populism. Our study shows that globalization has clear effects on politics, but that this effect is not limited to globalization losers, but also strongly holds for globalization winners. Importantly, although much research has documented that voters of populist-right voters FEEL threatened by globalization, our study shows that ACTUAL globalization risks do not drive their voting behavior.