What is it about?
This research paper uses an algorithm to simulate the spread and forecast of COVID-19 using the SIRD epidemic model. The study focuses on four countries - China, the United States, Russia, and the Syrian Arab Republic - and predicts a potential increase in cases for the following months. The algorithm can also be used to find other related coefficients of the pandemic.
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Why is it important?
The paper applies an algorithm to simulate the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead pandemic model for forecasting and spreading of COVID-19. The algorithm uses an implicit analytical solution and finite difference methods to find coefficients for infection, recovery, and mortality for four countries: China, the United States, Russia, and the Syrian Arab Republic. The paper predicts the number of infected, recovered, and deceased cases for the following months using methods commonly used for epidemic models. The algorithm used in the paper can potentially be applied to find other coefficients related to the pandemic, such as the basic reproduction number.
Perspectives
The paper applies an algorithm to simulate the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead pandemic model for forecasting and spreading of COVID-19.
Dr. Marwan Al-Raeei
Damascus University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The forecasting of COVID-19 with mortality using SIRD epidemic model for the United States, Russia, China, and the Syrian Arab Republic, AIP Advances, June 2020, American Institute of Physics,
DOI: 10.1063/5.0014275.
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