Accelerated Warming in the Middle East and North Africa: Past and Future

What is it about?

This research examines how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has experienced rapid warming since the pre-industrial era and projects future trends up to 2100. The study uses advanced climate models and historical data to analyze temperature changes, focusing on key sub-regions like the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria, alongside national-level projections for twenty countries within MENA. It reveals that MENA is warming faster than the global average, with some areas experiencing warming three times as rapid. Under scenarios of high greenhouse gas emissions, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could warm by as much as 9°C by 2100. These changes are linked to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions and are further influenced by natural climate variability. The study highlights specific “hotspots” of extreme warming. It compares regional trends to global patterns, showing that MENA will likely reach critical temperature thresholds of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C decades earlier than the global average.

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Photo by Sergey Pesterev on Unsplash

Photo by Sergey Pesterev on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The MENA region is already one of the hottest areas in the world, and the accelerated warming poses serious risks to its population, ecosystems, and economies. Rising temperatures will exacerbate water scarcity, increase the frequency of heat waves, and make some areas potentially uninhabitable. Coastal zones, which are slightly cooler due to proximity to water, still face significant risks, including rising sea levels and intense summer heat. This study provides critical insights for policymakers to prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in MENA. By understanding the specific regional warming patterns, strategies can be developed to protect vulnerable populations and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the findings underscore the urgent need for global climate action, as the rapid warming in MENA reflects larger-scale climate trends. Key Takeaways: • The Middle East and North Africa are warming faster than the global average. • The Arabian Peninsula could experience up to 9°C warming under high emissions by 2100. • MENA will reach 1.5°C, 2°C, and higher thresholds decades earlier than the world. • Extreme heat in this already hot region poses challenges to habitability and agriculture. • Urgent climate action is needed to mitigate impacts and ensure sustainable development. (edited)

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