All Stories

  1. Overprecision is a property of thinking systems.

    Article • Psychological Review, May 2022, American Psychological Association (APA)

    Don Moore

  2. The social transmission of overconfidence.

    Article • Journal of Experimental Psychology General, January 2021, American Psychological Association (APA)

    Don Moore

  3. Overprecision increases subsequent surprise

    Article • PLoS ONE, July 2020, PLOS

    Don Moore

  4. Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

    Article • Management Science, November 2017, INFORMS

    Don Moore, Barb Mellers

  5. The three faces of overconfidence

    Article • Social and Personality Psychology Compass, August 2017, Wiley

    Don Moore

  6. DOES THE BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS

    Article • Journal of the European Economic Association, November 2014, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Don Moore