All Stories

  1. Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters

    Article • July 2022, ACM (Association for Computing Machinery)

    Barb Mellers

  2. Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters

    Article • July 2020, ACM (Association for Computing Machinery)

    Barb Mellers

  3. From discipline-centered rivalries to solution-centered science: Producing better probability estimates for policy makers.

    Article • American Psychologist, April 2019, American Psychological Association (APA)

    Barb Mellers

  4. Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

    Article • Management Science, November 2017, INFORMS

    Don Moore, Barb Mellers

  5. Crowdsourcing predictions: markets vs. polls

    Article • Management Science, March 2017, INFORMS

    Dr Pavel Atanasov, Barb Mellers

  6. Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses

    Article • Decision Analysis, June 2016, INFORMS

    Dr. David V Budescu, Barb Mellers

  7. Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

    Article • Psychological Science, March 2014, SAGE Publications

    Barb Mellers