What is it about?
The English NHS is heavily politicized, and government policy cannot be questioned by the NHS. Policy-based evidence leads to information asymmetry as government agencies seek to enforce conformance to the 'truth' of policy. Examples are given where health care policy is contrary to the reality of the real world. NHS trends are examined and a method is presented to study both longer term trends and short-term mid-year forecasts of year-end in the absence of a perfect knowledge of the real trends.
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Why is it important?
Financial forecasting needs to be reasonably accurate in order to be of real value. In an environment where the real drivers of activity and costs my be concealed by policy-based evidence it is important to have tools which will work independent of the forecasters limited knowledge.
Perspectives
Those of us who have worked in the NHS for many years are often mystified regarding the origins of health care policy. It is also clear that the NHS is not allowed any constructive feedback - although feedback exercises are conducted. This paper is best read alongside another which examines why the trends in health care are behaving in a manner which contradicts policy. http://www.sciencedomain.org/abstract/17161 Further articles in the overall series can be found at: http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Information Asymmetry in Financial Forecasting within Healthcare and Simple Methods to Overcome this Deficiency, British Journal of Medicine and Medical Research, January 2017, Sciencedomain International,
DOI: 10.9734/bjmmr/2017/31474.
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