Understanding Zika Virus Outbreaks Through Mathematical Modeling

What is it about?

This review article discusses mathematical modeling approaches used to understand the transmission dynamics of the Zika virus. The authors conducted a survey of relevant research articles and identified five model architectures used in previous vector-borne virus studies, including compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. They found that early Zika models were less complex, while recent models have incorporated more real-world data and computational power. The authors suggest that both simple and complex models have value in predicting disease spread and assessing intervention strategies but should be used differently depending on the context. They recommend preparing complex modeling frameworks in advance of potential outbreaks, including for future Zika epidemics.

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Photo by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Unsplash

Photo by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Unsplash

Why is it important?

With the Zika virus outbreak being declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in 2016, understanding its spread and finding effective intervention strategies became crucial. This article discusses the use of mathematical modeling in understanding the transmission dynamics of the Zika virus. Mathematical modeling provides a way to explore and predict disease spread, evaluate the risk of disease importation, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. This article highlights the different modeling approaches used for Zika virus simulations and the importance of using both simple and complex models in predicting disease spread and assessing intervention strategies. It also suggests preparing complicated modeling frameworks before potential outbreaks, which can help with future Zika epidemics or other similar infectious diseases.

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