Analytic Prognostic in the Linear Damage Case Applied to Buried Petrochemical Pipelines and the CPP

What is it about?

In 1933, Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov established the system of five axioms that define the concept of mathematical probability. This system can be developed to include the set of imaginary numbers and this by adding a supplementary three original axioms. Therefore, any experiment can be performed in the set C of complex probabilities which is the summation of the set R of real probabilities and the set M of imaginary probabilities. The purpose here is to include additional imaginary dimensions to the experiment taking place in the "real" laboratory in R and hence to evaluate all the probabilities. Consequently, the probability in the entire set C = R + M is permanently equal to one no matter what the stochastic distribution of the input random variable in R is, therefore the outcome of the probabilistic experiment in C can be determined perfectly. This is due to the fact that the probability in C is calculated after subtracting from the degree of our knowledge the chaotic factor of the random experiment. Consequently, the purpose in this chapter is to join my complex probability paradigm to the analytic prognostic of buried petrochemical pipelines in the case of linear damage accumulation. Accordingly, after the calculation of the novel prognostic model parameters, we will be able to evaluate the degree of knowledge, the magnitude of the chaotic factor, the complex probability, the probabilities of the system failure and survival, and the probability of the remaining useful lifetime, after that a pressure time t has been applied to the pipeline, and which are all functions of the system degradation subject to random and stochastic influences.

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Why is it important?

All our work in classical probability theory is to compute probabilities. The original idea in this research work is to add new dimensions to our random experiment, which will make the work deterministic. In fact, the probability theory is a nondeterministic theory by nature; that means that the outcome of the events is due to chance and luck. By adding new dimensions to the event in R, we make the work deterministic and hence a random experiment will have a certain outcome in the complex set of probabilities C. It is of great importance that the stochastic system, like the problem considered here, becomes totally predictable since we will be totally knowledgeable to foretell the outcome of chaotic and random events that occur in nature for example in statistical mechanics or in all stochastic processes. Therefore, the work that should be done is to add to the real set of probabilities R, the contributions of M which is the imaginary set of probabilities which will make the event in C = R +M deterministic. If this is found to be fruitful, then a new theory in statistical sciences and prognostic is elaborated and this is to understand absolutely deterministically those phenomena that used to be random phenomena in R. This is what I called ‘The Complex Probability Paradigm (CPP)’, which was initiated and elaborated in my previous papers.

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