The Paradigm of Complex Probability and Thomas Bayes’ Theorem

What is it about?

The mathematical probability concept was set forth by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov in 1933 by laying down a five-axioms system. This scheme can be improved to embody the set of imaginary numbers after adding three new axioms. Accordingly, any stochastic phenomenon can be performed in the set C of complex probabilities which is the summation of the set R of real probabilities and the set M of imaginary probabilities. Our objective now is to encompass complementary imaginary dimensions to the stochastic phenomenon taking place in the “real” laboratory in R and as a consequence to gauge in the sets R, M, and C all the corresponding probabilities. Hence, the probability in the entire set C = R + M is incessantly equal to one independently of all the probabilities of the input stochastic variable distribution in R, and subsequently the output of the random phenomenon in R can be evaluated totally in C. This is due to the fact that the probability in C is calculated after the elimination and subtraction of the chaotic factor from the degree of our knowledge of the nondeterministic phenomenon. We will apply this novel paradigm to the classical Bayes’ theorem in probability theory.

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Why is it important?

The crucial job of the theory of classical probability is to compute and to assess probabilities. A deterministic expression of probability theory can be attained by adding supplementary dimensions to nondeterministic and stochastic experiments. This original and novel idea is at the foundations of my new paradigm of complex probability. In its core, probability theory is a nondeterministic system of axioms that means that the phenomena and experiments outputs are the products of chance and randomness. In fact, a deterministic expression of the stochastic experiment will be realized and achieved by the addition of imaginary new dimensions to the stochastic phenomenon taking place in the real probability set R and hence this will lead to a certain output in the set C of complex probabilities. Accordingly, we will be totally capable to foretell the random events outputs that occur in all probabilistic processes in the real world. This is possible because the chaotic phenomenon becomes completely predictable. Thus, the job that has been successfully completed here was to extend the set of real and random probabilities which is the set R to the complex and deterministic set of probabilities which is C = R + M. This is achieved by taking into account the contributions of the imaginary and complementary set of probabilities to the set R and that we have called accordingly the set M. This extension proved that it was effective and consequently we were successful to create an original paradigm dealing with prognostic and stochastic sciences in which we were able to express deterministically in C all the nondeterministic processes happening in the ‘real’ world R. This innovative paradigm was coined by the term “The Complex Probability Paradigm” and was started and established in my seventeen earlier publications and research works.

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