What is it about?

Extreme climate events in Europe have caused large economic losses in recent times. Changing weather patterns due to climate change make climate risk management challenging. While Europe has set targets to reduce carbon emissions, it is uncertain whether these targets will be met. The region needs plans to adapt and protect against losses during climate disasters, particularly for countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CESEE). This report shows how climate models can be used to develop climate plans for CESEE countries. First, the authors use models to predict the future climate of European countries. Next, they identify countries whose present climate best matches these predictions. These data are then used to plan investments for future adaptation strategies.

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Why is it important?

CESEE countries face greater risks from severe weather events. This is because they are economically weaker and rely on sectors more vulnerable to climate change. These nations have lower investments in infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather. The authors show that when present climate data from CESEE countries were used in their models, they could prepare for future weather changes. The models could also estimate the degree of uncertainty in climate prediction. By anticipating these changes, CESEE countries can make informed investments to reduce risks. Additionally, the authors explain that economic growth from investing in infrastructure can be improved with strong governance and initiatives to increase private funding. KEY TAKEAWAY: Investing in infrastructure that can withstand future weather patterns will reduce economic losses from natural disasters. This investment will also support sustainable growth in CESEE countries. This research relates to the following Sustainable Development Goals: •SDG 13: Climate Action •SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure •SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities •SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth •SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

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This page is a summary of: Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe, IMF Working Paper, May 2024, International Monetary Fund,
DOI: 10.5089/9798400276118.001.
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