Climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region: a consensus view

What is it about?

We assess the level of consensus among cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs). We identify robust features and explore sources of disagreement, using a set of 14 CDTMs for computing the climatology of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region. Results show large differences in actual cyclone numbers identified by different methods, but a good level of consensus on the interpretation of results regarding location, annual cycle and trends of cyclone tracks.

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Why is it important?

For the first time the characteristics of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean region are analysed based on 14 different CDTMs applied to the same dataset (ERA-Interim for the period 1979-2008). Resulting cyclone tracks and statistics enable a characterisation of the cyclone life cycle in both individual and climatological terms. Cyclogenesis areas such as the north-western Mediterranean, North Africa, north shore of the Levantine basin, as well as the seasonality of their maxima are robust features on which methods show a substantial agreement. Results show significant negative trends of cyclone frequency in spring and positive trends in summer, whose contrasting effects compensate each other at annual scale, so that there is no significant long-term trend in total cyclone numbers in the Mediterranean basin in the 1979-2008 period.