Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Snowfall Conditions in Poland Based on the Snow Fraction Sensitivity Index

What is it about?

This study presents an analysis of reconstructed snowfall conditions across the territory of Poland for the period of 1981–2020. The snow fraction sensitivity index reproduces spatially and temporally consistent patterns of decreasing snowfall in response to the gradually warming climate in the cold season of the year (NDJFMA). The elasticity approach linked highly correlated temperature and snow fraction variables. The snow fraction index introduced herein captures long-term trends in diminishing snowfall, indicating the areas that are most prone to snow degradation. Our results suggest that there are significant spatial differences in the responsiveness of the snow fraction to thermal conditions. Projected snowfall conditions for the middle of the twenty-first century suggest that further changes will occur. Thanks to the ongoing cold-season warming, snow-dominated areas may be reduced from covering 86% to covering 30% of the country’s surface; these areas will be converted into rain–snow transient areas.

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Why is it important?

Our results demonstrate that a decline in snow water resources has already occurred, and these resources are expected to diminish further in the near future. New insights into the sensitivity of the snow fraction to climate warming will expand our collective knowledge of the magnitude and spatial extent of snow degradation. Such widespread changes have implications for the timing and availability of soil and groundwater resources as well as the timing and likelihood of floods and droughts. Thus, these findings will provide valuable information that can inform environmental managers of the importance of changing snowfall conditions, guiding them to include this aspect in future climate adaptation strategies.

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