What is it about?
The model is based on the observation that the absolute number of deaths is far more predictive of hospital bed demand than are age-based models. The model therefore plots hospital beds per 1,000 deaths versus deaths per 1,000 population using a logarithmic relationship. The slope and intercept of this relationship are interrelated such that lines of equivalent bed demand can be drawn based on the value of the intercept. The model is best suited to adult acute bed demand, i.e. excluding pregnancy and childbirth, pediatrics and mental health. The model is illustrated using data from English Clinical Commissioning Groups and from Australian states. In the case of Australia the population of indigenous people in each state has a disproportionate effect upon hospital bed demand. The model can be further expanded using social groups of which the UK Output Area Classification (OAC) is an example.
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Why is it important?
The method allows for unambiguous comparison between countries and readily identifies those countries where long-term investment into integrated care has led to lower hospital bed demand.
Perspectives
In England, the disasterous Private Finance Initiative (PFI) led to hospitals being built in order to satisfy cost benefit analysis. This led to hospitals 'fiddling' the bed demand calculations to fit the demands of PFI rather than the needs of the population. England now has vastly fewer beds than the current needs of its population.
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: A Model to Compare International Hospital Bed Numbers, including a Case Study on the Role of Indigenous People on Acute ‘Occupied’ Bed Demand in Australian States, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, September 2022, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191811239.
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