The risk of hydro-hegemony in the South Caucasus: Turkey’s role in the Kura-Araks river basin

What is it about?

The South Caucasus is in a fragile state of peace following the 2020 Karabakh war. As Russia's influence wanes in the region, Turkey's growing influence in regional politics and the peace process it is trying to pioneer are vital. Amidst the security and military issues, it is the environmental dimension that has so far not received the attention it deserves. In my article published in Caucasus Survey, I discussed the risks of ignoring regional transboundary water and environmental issues in the peace process Turkey is trying to lead in the Caucasus region. For many years, Turkey has been facing tensions with regional countries as a result of dam and irrigation projects in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, which in the long run negatively affected diplomatic relations between Turkey and Syria and Iraq, as well as Turkey's image in the region. In Northeast Anatolia, the situation is different. Turkey's unilateral policy in the management of the waters of the Çoruh, Kura and Aras rivers that it shares with the countries of the South Caucasus has the potential to put at risk the peace in the region. After the 2020 Karabakh war, the issue of transboundary waters between Azerbaijan and Armenia took on a different dimension. Turkey is an important actor here in the regional hydropolitics as a potential hydro-hegemon in the upstream of the Kura-Aras river basin. Russia is almost completely silent on this issue. In a situation where Russia has no initiative and influence on regional environmental and water issues, Turkey is the most important political actor that has the potential to fill this void in water and environmental diplomacy concerning the Caucasus region. To date, yet, it does not seem possible to say that there has been a breakthrough in Turkish foreign policy in this direction. For now, environmental and water issues in the Caucasus are outside the purview of high politics and bilateral diplomatic relations. Some of the non-governmental organisations in the region are showing interest in the issue. If there is no high-level and regional cooperation, the devastating effects of climate change could increase the socio-economic risks in the Caucasus, especially in Turkey’s traditional ally Azerbaijan.

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Photo by mostafa meraji on Unsplash

Photo by mostafa meraji on Unsplash