What is it about?

It would seem that calculated in-hospital mortality mostly simply tracks the number of deaths in the community surrounding the hospital. Hospital processes only have a weak effect.

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Why is it important?

Politicians use hospital mortality calculations as a basis for policy changes to 'save lives'. If the models are flawed then the policy to correct the supposed problem is likewise flawed.

Perspectives

Part of an extended series investigating in-hospital mortality, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf

Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

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This page is a summary of: A ‘fatal’ flaw in hospital mortality models: How spatiotemporal variation in all-cause mortality invalidates hidden assumptions in the models, Fractal Geometry and Nonlinear Analysis in Medicine and Biology, January 2016, Open Access Text Pvt, Ltd.,
DOI: 10.15761/fgnamb.1000116.
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