What is it about?
Short, concentrated attacks by lone offenders, called shooting sprees, are perpetrated by a particular type of risk-taking decision-maker: the 'plunger'. Terrorists choose from among a set of alternative attack methods. For the most part, it makes sense to treat the terrorist decision-maker as risk-averse to some degree (that is, he prefers higher payoffs and less risk if possible). A risk-seeker, by contrast, will always choose the attack method with the most variable payoffs. Because other types of attacks are commonly chosen by terrorists, we know that risk-seeking behavior (a preference for more risk, even at the cost of lower payoffs) does not describe the majority of terrorist decision-makers. A shooting spree is a unique case that involves the 'plunging' of resources into a short, concentrated terrorist attack. Economic theory of decision-making under risk and uncertainty can be used to explore this type of behavior.
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Why is it important?
Shooting sprees are a particularly damaging type of terrorist attack that is difficult to preempt. This paper shows how this type of behavior and the decision to engage in a shooting spree can be explored by treating the perpetrator as a 'plunger', a unique type of decision-maker. Important results emerge from the analysis. This type of terrorist will be particularly sensitive to changes in the risk-reward trade-off. When he perceives a 'favorable' change, he will act all at once and plunge into the attack.
Perspectives
This is another contribution to what I call 'investigative economics'. The economic analysis of terrorism and terrorist behavior can be used to identify the actions that would be chosen by 'types' of terrorists or, conversely, if an action is observed, the identification of the 'type' of terrorist who is most likely to have perpetrated it. A shooting spree is the work of a particular 'type' or profile of terrorist: the plunger. Once he perceives a change in the risk-reward trade-off, he plunges all of his resources into a terrorist action. An awareness of the terrorists' opportunity set and its sensitivity to changes in the terrorism context may help law enforcement to be on special alert for terrorists of this type at particular times.
Dr Peter J Phillips
University of Southern Queensland
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The lone wolf terrorist: sprees of violence, Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy, December 2012, De Gruyter,
DOI: 10.1515/peps-2012-0010.
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