What is it about?

After recovering from the initial phase of COVID-19, many people continue to experience health problems for weeks or even months. These ongoing symptoms—often called long COVID—are still not well understood, especially in African countries. Our study looked at how long these symptoms last among people in Zambia who were sick enough with COVID-19 to be hospitalized, and what factors affect how quickly they recover. We followed 823 patients who had been admitted to hospitals across Zambia and later attended special post-COVID clinics. These patients continued to experience symptoms such as breathlessness, fatigue, chest pain, cough, or body weakness even after leaving the hospital. We wanted to understand how long it took for these symptoms to completely go away. We found that for most people, long COVID symptoms eventually improved. About three out of four patients recovered during the follow-up period. On average, symptoms lasted a little over seven weeks after diagnosis. However, recovery time differed depending on the person. Those who had a more severe form of COVID-19 during their hospital stay took longer to recover. People infected during the time when the Omicron variant was dominant tended to recover faster compared to those infected during the early stages of the pandemic. We also discovered an important pattern: the chances of recovering were highest in the first month after illness. If a person still had symptoms after this period, recovery tended to slow down. This means that early follow-up care is important, and patients whose symptoms persist longer may need extra support. Overall, our study helps show what long COVID looks like for hospitalized patients in Zambia and provides useful information for doctors, health planners, and patients themselves about what to expect during recovery

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Why is it important?

Long COVID is now recognised worldwide, but much of what we know comes from high-income countries. In African settings, most studies have assumed that the likelihood of recovering from long COVID is constant. Our study explored how the likelihood of recovery changed over time from the date of diagnosis. The study findings are crucial for both patients and health services. People often feel anxious or confused when symptoms linger for weeks. The study findings help set realistic expectations by showing that many patients in Zambia recovered within one to two months, while also identifying those who may need more support. For health planners, knowing when symptoms are most likely to resolve can guide staffing, clinic schedules, and follow-up care. It also helps predict the long-term burden of COVID-19 on the health system.

Perspectives

From a data analysis standpoint, this study offered a rare opportunity to examine long COVID using real-world clinical follow-up data from Zambia—data that are seldom available in such detail. One of the most striking insights was how clearly the time-to-event models revealed the changing probability of recovery over time. The pattern was not uniform: recovery accelerated early, peaked around the first month, and then slowed sharply. This was something simple averages or traditional methods would have missed. Applying parametric survival models allowed us to capture these nuances and quantify how factors like disease severity and variant waves shaped recovery. The analysis showed that the story of long COVID is not just how long symptoms last, but how the likelihood of recovery shifts across time—an insight that can meaningfully improve patient care and follow-up planning.

Warren Malambo
University of Zambia

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This page is a summary of: Parametric survival analysis of long COVID among hospitalized patients in Zambia: A retrospective cohort study on the time to symptoms resolving, PLOS Global Public Health, November 2025, PLOS,
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004679.
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