What is it about?
Between 2012 and 2020 deaths in England were expected to be at a minimum before commencing to rise as the WWII baby boomers begin to die in appreciable numbers. Contrary to all expectations deaths began to rise in 2012 and have reached an unexpected high in 2017. However, there are local exceptions, and 12-month rolling total deaths in different local authorities peak at different points in 2017, i.e. this is not a summer/winter phenomenon.
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Why is it important?
Deaths around the world are NOT behaving in the way that everyone had assumed that they should. They do in fact behave as an on/off switching mechanism. Urgent research is required to establish why this is so. Indeed, emergency hospital admissions are behaving in the same peculiar way. The proposal that government austerity is responsible for the higher deaths is entirely unsupported by the spatial behavior of deaths seen in both the UK and elsewhere around the world. This behavior occurs before the period of recent austerity in the UK.
Perspectives
At sub-local authority level, the behavior of deaths and medical admissions behaves like some new type or kind of infectious outbreak. This is part of a far longer series investigating this behavior, see http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Deaths in 2017 reached a new (unexpected) high, British Journal of Healthcare Management, May 2018, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2018.24.5.256.
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