What is it about?

There have been recent claims that austerity in the UK led to a large increase in deaths in 2015. However, the evidence supporting this assertion was not strong and is contradicted by the following factors. Deaths at local authority level show trends inconsistent with austerity. There is no relationship between social deprivation score and the increase in deaths. Some local authorities also show a decrease in deaths. In addition, medical admissions and bed occupancy for a range of diagnoses increase, and it is these diagnoses which have increased in previous examples of the event which occurred in 2015.

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Why is it important?

From a policy perspective, it is important to correctly attribute cause and effect. Hence it is unlikely that the reversal of austerity in the UK will have any impact on deaths since other factors are behind the increase, and that these other factors have come into play before austerity was commenced. As of 2019 it is now known that the increase in deaths has happened across the whole of Europe, among other high-income countries and more widely around the world. Given the diversity of the healthcare systems, of dietary and lifestyle factors, and of ethnic groups; and given the fact that levels of 'austerity' are highly disparate, austerity as a common cause can be excluded as causative.

Perspectives

This is part of far wider research into the possibility of recurring outbreaks of a novel type of infectious immune impairment. See http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf Indeed while austerity may have been of concern the existence of a new type of disease capable of causing large increases in death is far more concerning and should be investigated with considerable urgency. Additional research (published in 2019 November issue of BJHCM) shows that local authority specific austerity in England, Scotland and Wales shows absolutely NO correlation with an increase in deaths. The austerity theory of increased deaths in the UK is, in my opinion, an urban myth!

Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

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This page is a summary of: Did austerity cause the rise in deaths seen in England and Wales in 2015?, British Journal of Healthcare Management, September 2017, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2017.23.9.418.
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