What is it about?
Current levels of deaths are compared to Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts prepared every two years for the past decade. Since 2012 deaths have dramatically diverged from previous forecasts and are now running at levels expected 20 years into the future. No official explanation has been given.
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Why is it important?
The marginal changes in deaths drive the marginal changes in emergency hospital admissions and costs. The knock-on effects of six years of higher deaths have been a huge NHS deficit which has been blamed on the inability of the NHS to contain rising demand.
Perspectives
This is part of a longer series of studies examining the fundamental forces behind acute demand. End-of-life accounts for a disproportionately high proportion of a persons lifetime use of acute services. See http://www.hcaf.biz/2010/Publications_Full.pdf
Dr Rodney P Jones
Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Government data on death rates do not tell a full story, British Journal of Healthcare Management, August 2017, Mark Allen Group,
DOI: 10.12968/bjhc.2017.23.8.396.
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