The ageing population does not correctly predict the need for medical beds (Part 2)

What is it about?

Part 2 looks at how current bed number models can be modified to correctly estimate future medical bed numbers. The implications to the NHS funding formula are also discussed and the current formula has a fundamental flaw in that it ignores the effect of nearness-to-death on health care costs and utilization. This disrupts how the current model works leading to gross under- and over-funding. All models suffer catastrophic failure when they ignore a key variable. Finally the optimum size for an autonomous health authority is investigated and can be shown to be around a population having 20,000 to 25,000 deaths per annum. By implication only 20 large CCGs should be present in England not the current number of 44.

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Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash

Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash

Why is it important?

For policy to be effective it must reflect reality rather than political rhetoric. Policy-based evidence has led to England being stripped of hospital beds when reality dictates that bed demand will increase for the next 40 years.

Perspectives