Book Review: Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting

What is it about?

This book is about superforecasters, people who are able to envisage the future in a superb way. The authors conducted a multiyear forecasting study called the Good Judgement Project (GJP), made up of thousands of ordinary people, all volunteered to forecast global events. This was the largest and most rigorous study of prediction to date. Some of the forecasters were astonishingly good, able to envisage the future with high accuracy. The authors wanted to understand the keys for the superforecasters’ success. They show that forecasting can improve with experience and thinking, that foresight is not a gift but rather a product of a particular way of thinking (pp. 68-72).

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Why is it important?

The book is very engaging. The story is captivating. The lessons are scientific, well measured, practical and thought-provoking. The flow of writing makes a compelling thesis that is important and timely, with direct implications on our lives, be it whether the reader is a leader who has to face tough decisions, a strategist who is engaged with complicated decision-making processes, a political analyst who is tasked to envisage who will win the next election, or a person who wishes to invest in the stoke market. This brilliant book offers something to every reader. You will surely enjoy it. May I predict that this book will now be on your list of must read?

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