What is it about?
More is being learned about tornadoes within linear thunderstorms and forecasters now have a forecast conceptual model, known as the mesovortex warning system, to help with warning decisions. However, these tornadoes are still difficult to predict. Therefore, we studied additional, potentially useful weather radar features that are not yet incorporated into the mesovortex warning system. Through an analysis of 167 areas of rotation within linear thunderstorms, we found that some of these additional radar features can provide helpful information about how strong the rotation might be and whether or not a tornado might develop. This information can help increase forecaster confidence in the warnings they issue for linear thunderstorms.
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Why is it important?
Tornadoes in linear thunderstorms are dangerous and difficult to predict. Any tool that can help forecasters anticipate the development of these tornadoes will help them give people important safety information. It appears as if some of the weather radar features we studied, called Kdp cores and Kdp drops, can provide information about how strong rotation within a linear thunderstorm might become. This information can be fit into an existing forecast conceptual model and further build forecaster confidence in the likelihood of tornado development within linear thunderstorms.
Perspectives
This research was conducted with forecasters in an effort to provide results that will ultimately help forecasters anticipate tornadoes in linear storms. The results appear promising in building confidence in whether or not a part of the thunderstorm line will produce dangerous rotation. I thank the many forecasters who have provided vital support, analysis, and feedback for this work.
Charles Kuster
National Severe Storms Laboratory
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Radar Signatures Associated with Quasi-Linear Convective System Mesovortices, Weather and Forecasting, August 2024, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0144.1.
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