What is it about?
According to a prior study, 46% of North Atlantic hurricanes transition into mid-latitude cyclones as they move poleward, potentially bringing hazardous weather to locations that rarely experience hurricane impacts. Previous studies also indicate that projected climate change will worsen the impacts of hurricanes and tropical storms, especially with increased rainfall. These factors motivated us to investigate how climate change could affect the characteristics of transitioning hurricanes. We utilized computer-based experiments to simulate hurricane Irene, which affected the eastern U.S. in 2011. In one simulation, we reproduced the observed storm. In an experimental simulation, we examined how the storm would change in a warmer climate. The future transitioning storm featured substantially heavier precipitation and stronger winds. In addition, the amount of time it took the storm to complete its transitioning was about 60% longer in the warmer simulations.
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Why is it important?
While many hurricanes moving out of the tropics weaken, a subset of these systems intensify and increase in size. We studied one of these storms, Irene from 2011, which was a very high impact event in the present climate. Our experimental simulations show that in a warmer climate, the impacts of Irene would have been even greater, with heavier rainfall and stronger winds. Also, because the transition process took longer, this suggests that in the future, hurricane conditions could potentially reach higher latitudes. While this is only a single case study, it provides a useful perspective and informs other experiments we are doing now with “generic” or “idealized” simulations of this type of weather system.
Perspectives
There has been intensive study of how climate change would affect the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. However, only limited research has been paying attention to how climate change affects the characteristics of transitioning hurricanes as they move into mid-latitudes. This study offers insight into how the transition process may be affected by climate change. We recognize that this study is only an initial step toward a complete understanding of the potential changes in transitioning process in a warming climate since we examined only one specific case. Currently, we are designing idealized computer-based simulations in order to form a comprehensive understanding of changes and impacts of the transitioning process with climate warming in the North Atlantic. The case of Irene will help us to inform our experimental design.
Chunyong Jung
North Carolina State University
This paper is one in a series addressing the topic of how climate change may affect tropical weather systems as they move out of the tropics. Other studies by Chunyong Jung and another research scientist who worked with us, Allison Michaelis, use different methods to study the problem. Using a variety of methods helps to increase confidence in the results.
Gary M Lackmann
North Carolina State University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Irene (2011) in a Changing Climate, Journal of Climate, May 2019, American Meteorological Society,
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0558.1.
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