Early-onset El Niño means warmer winters in East Asia, and vice versa

What is it about?

The East Asian winter temperature variability is controlled not only by the strong atmospheric internal variability in the midlatitudes and high latitudes but also by remote forcing from the tropical ocean. Our study investigates how El Niño exerts diverse impacts on the East Asian winter temperature, depending on where atmospheric convection intensifies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Our results show that an intense warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and the early development of El Niño are the major factors for warm winters in East Asia. Given that a precursor of the intense Indian Ocean warming appears in boreal autumn, our findings should contribute to the improvement of seasonal prediction for the East Asian winter climate.

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Photo by Samuel Berner on Unsplash

Photo by Samuel Berner on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Each El Niño is individually unique, and no two El Niños are exactly alike. Naturally, these differences lead to a variety of abnormal global climate patterns. To better predict regional weather and climate during El Niño, it is important to know how and where the atmosphere changes. The team hopes their new findings will be utilized by researchers and meteorologists to better predict climate patterns months in advance, especially during active El Niño phases.