Predicting summertime Atlantic hurricane activity with wintertime Rossby wave breaking

What is it about?

Anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking are intrusions of dry air from the north into tropical regions. These breaking waves make the environment less favorable for hurricane activity. In this paper, we show that wave breaking can be used to predict hurricane activity as early as three months ahead of the hurricane season.

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Photo by NASA on Unsplash

Photo by NASA on Unsplash

Why is it important?

We show that the predictive skill of early-April forecasts of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity are considerably improved by adding a wintertime Rossby wave breaking predictor. This means that we can more accurately predict hurricane activity well ahead of the peak season.