Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

What is it about?

The earth’s climate is changing and predictions indicate that the climate of the Amazon region will become significantly drier over the coming century. In this study, we analyze the impacts of changing rainfall patterns on Amazon tropical forests using computer models that simulate the forest’s changes over time. Our analysis shows that the resilience of Amazon tropical forests depends on both the frequency of extreme droughts and the type of soil, which governs how much water is available to trees. Our study also shows that forests could become shorter because big trees demand more water and are more susceptible to droughts. We then determine the relative sensitivity of different areas of the Amazon to changes in their patterns of rainfall and analyze the likelihood of such changes arising by the end of the 21st century under current predictions of how rainfall patterns are expected to change in the region. The analysis suggests that forests in several areas in the northern, eastern and southern Amazon are particularly vulnerable to small changes in the current rainfall regime.

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