Method synergy in the hunt for climate refugia

What is it about?

During times of extreme climate change, pockets of more favourable environmental conditions can shelter species and maintain biodiversity. These buffered habitats, known as climate refugia, allow life to survive and repopulate the area once the climate returns to more advantageous conditions. Mapping refugia There are three main methods used to deduce the locations of refugia during historical climate events: • Species distribution models – this method enables scientists to use statistics to combine available data about the environmental preferences of a species across space and time to determine where they might have lived previously; however, it is difficult to model the true mosaic of different microclimates in most habitats. • Fossil records – a body of evidence showing the remains or impressions of petrified plant and animal matter. They are the best evidence that a species existed in a specific location at a particular time. • Phylogeography – the use of present day locations and genetic diversity of a species to provide insights into its distributions over time; over an evolutionarily short period accuracy can be limited. Combined to complement Determining past climate refugia is important to guide our prediction of species distribution changes in the future. It can tell us which features of a habitat buffer against climate extremes and whether species will be able to use refugia to survive in our warming world. The authors use case studies of trees to illustrate how the sometimes conflicting evidence of these three approaches can be combined synergistically to provide a better estimate of species’ past distributions and climate refugia.

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