Generation Expansion Planning Considering High Share Renewable Energies Uncertainty

What is it about?

Abstract— The objective of the power system Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) is to determine the best investment schedule of capacity, type of technology, time and where to install new plants to satisfy forecasted load within the given reliability criteria over a planning horizon. Renewable Energy Resources (RES) implementation within the GEP model represents a challenging problem due to the RES uncertainty prediction and representation difficulty. This paper presents a mathematical model for the RES uncertainty prediction and proposes an optimal planning model for long-term GEP with high sharing of RES considering the uncertainty. The RES are represented as a conventional source with zero fuel cost and high forced outage rate within the GEP model. The GEP model considers the RES uncertainties impact, CO2 gas emission reduction rate, inefficient generation units' retirement and the gradual penetration increasing of RES over the planning period. Mixed integer linear programming is carried out using MATLAB software to solve the proposed GEP model for a 20 years planning period.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

This paper concerns with the influence of renewable energy long-term uncertainty on the GEP model. A mathematical model for long-term RES uncertainty prediction is proposed. The RES variance historical data are used to build the proposed model by means of Probability Density Function (PDF). The RES uncertainty implementation within the GEP model is achieved by using different RES uncertainty scenarios based on the probability of exceedance deduced from the PDF.

Perspectives