What is it about?
When predicting prices, investors can adopt two approaches. Time series models use a 'rear view mirror of past price behavior to extrapolate whereas structural models identify impact of underlying market drivers (factors). Both have limitation but a blend of both can cut risk making the wrong investment call.
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Why is it important?
Robust forecasts incorporate or consider a range of approaches.
Perspectives
Market evolution is notoriously tricky to predict An understanding of alternate modeling perspectives can help avoid costly mistakes.
Dr Simon Hugh Huston
Coventry University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models, Journal of Property Investment & Finance, July 2015, Emerald,
DOI: 10.1108/jpif-08-2014-0053.
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