The impact of blockchain on Brazilian public procurement processes from the perspective of transaction costs: scenarios as perceived by experts

What is it about?

This article aimed to explore the possible impacts of applying a blockchain network to the procurement processes of Brazilian public organizations. The methodology involved assessing scenarios based on the opinion of experts about the possible results of the implementation of blockchain technology in the procurement sector of a public organization. Five experts with blockchain knowledge and proven experience in public procurement were selected. The experts were consulted about twenty preliminary events, defined their probability of occurrence and the pertinence of each, and also provided a self-assessment of their knowledge about each event. The obtained data were entered in Puma 4.0 software, which led to the selection of ten definitive events based on the indicators of probability, pertinence, and standard deviation. From the selection of the definitive events, Puma 4.0 presented a map of prospective scenarios, which were interpreted to generate a prognosis about the implementation of a blockchain network. The results pointed to the driving and dependent events that influence and/or are influenced within the projected scenario analysis. The most likely scenario of events was presented based on the deployment of a blockchain network environment in a public procurement management unit. The ideal scenario was identified, defined as the scenario that results in the most benefits of deploying a blockchain network with the fewest complications. Based on the most likely scenario, the trend scenario, and the ideal scenario, the events were categorized as opportunities or threats to technology deployment.

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