Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India

What is it about?

In this paper we address the issue of whether climate variability (defined as changes in an index measuring deviations in rainfall compared to the long run mean) affects inter-state migration in India using complete census data on migration flows of different durations. In particular, we use the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to define measures of the frequency, duration, and magnitude of droughts, and measure their effects on permanent inter-state migration in India.

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Why is it important?

Studies on climate change and migration often use international data that are either at a decadal level or yearly but not standardized between countries. In our study of India we use the census data which are the most complete and accurate data of permanent migration flows within a country. Since we're studying such a large and heterogenous country as India, the results are important in understanding whether drought or excess precipitation may induce permanent migration or not. We also explore what mechanisms may explain the results, focussing on agriculture, urbanisation and total income effects.