Flood modelling

What is it about?

Flooding impacts can be reduced through application of suitable hydrological and hydraulic tools to define flood zones in a specific area. This article proposes a risk matrix technique which is applied on a case study of Taibah and Islamic universities catchment in Medina, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The analysis is based on integration of the hydrologic model hydraulic models to delineate the flood inundation zones. A flood risk matrix is developed based on the flood occurrence probability and the associated inundation depth. The risk matrix criterion is classified according to the degree of risks as high, moderate and low. The case study has indicted low to moderate risk for flood frequencies of 5 years return periods and moderate to high risk may exist for flood with rerun period of 50 and 100 years. The results are projected on a two-dimensional satellite images that shows the geographical locations exposed to flooding. A quantitative summary of the results have been presented graphically to estimate the magnitude of the inundation areas that can assess the degree of damage and its economic aspects. The developed flood risk matrix tool is a quantitative tool to assess the damage which is crucial for decision makers.

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Why is it important?

The proposed flood risk matrix technique for the assessments of flood risks in the urbanized arid environment was applied on a case study of the TU and IU catchment in Medina, KSA. Results of the risk matrix are visualized in 2D satellite images, showing the geographical locations influenced by the flood coverage. It indicated low-to-moderate risk for a flood frequency of 5-year return period and moderate-to-high risk for flood with return periods of 50 and 100 years. A quantitative summary of the results is shown graphically to estimate the magnitude of inundation areas, which can be later transferred into a degree of damage. The proposed risk matrix technique is in line with the main principles reported in the literature (FEMA 2004 FEMA. 2004. HAZUS-MH. FEMA’s methodology for estimating potential losses from disasters. US Federal Emergency Management Agency. http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm [Google Scholar]) that may provide an appropriate tool for arid and extreme arid regions. The technique needs further evaluation through applications to other case studies.