What is it about?
Once a model of choice under risk and uncertainty is applied to the lone wolf terrorist's opportunities and choices it becomes possible to determine the attack methods that would be chosen by particular 'types' of terrorists. When inverted, this framework can be used to generate inferences about unknown offenders on the basis of the choices that they have been observed to make. For example, a terrorist who chooses a very risky attack method may be inferred to be less risk-averse. Additional inferences follow, including the location of the terrorist relative to his attack location, his likely pattern of engagement with terrorism and his likely attack method choices.
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Why is it important?
The economic analysis of terrorism, like most of terrorism studies, has been directed towards more abstract or policy level discussions. Economic analysis can be applied directly within the investigative process to assist law enforcement in both the preemption and pursuit of lone terrorist offenders.
Perspectives
This represents the clear emergence of an 'investigative economics' for application by law enforcement, especially within a terrorism context. We explored the approach taken by the investigative psychologists and offender profilers and identified the ways in which our economic analysis could be used to generate inferences about unknown offenders. Using economic analysis as a foundation for behavioral investigative advice has a number of advantages. In particular, the definition of risk and the treatment of terrorists' risk preferences is much more rigorous in comparison to the very subjective treatments found within the investigative psychology literature.
Dr Peter J Phillips
University of Southern Queensland
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Economic Profiling of the Lone Wolf Terrorist: Can Economics Provide Behavioral Investigative Advice?, Journal of Applied Security Research, April 2012, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/19361610.2012.656250.
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