What is it about?

Both productivity shocks and risk premium shocks trigger currency crises in emerging markets. In addition, the short-term external debt and overvaluation of exchange rates explain exchange rate dynamics.

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Why is it important?

This is the first empirical research rigorously based on the three generational theoretical balance of payments crisis models.

Perspectives

A 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency.

Dr. Ryota Nakatani
International Monetary Fund

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This page is a summary of: The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, October 2016, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/1540496x.2016.1216836.
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