Theoretical framework of AKP rule in Turkey

What is it about?

Turkey’s recent drift towards authoritarianism has taken many by surprise. Once hailed as a democratic model for the Middle East, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) has increasingly islamised Turkish society, jailed journalists, monopolised the judicial power and taken over the state apparatus. This article discusses the party’s behaviour, contending that Turkey’s prospects for democratisation are totally dependent on AKP’s choices as the dominant actor in Turkish politics and society. Using a theoretical framework that combines rational choice institutionalism and the role of elites in democratisation processes, the article argues that AKP’s particular characteristics and the institutional setting that influences them makes democratisation a seemingly impossible outcome. Given that EU accession and the necessary domestic reforms to meet conditionality, namely the Copenhagen criteria, equate a democratisation process, the main conclusion is that Turkey’s prospects for accession under AKP remain grim for purely domestic causes.

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