What is it about?
The idea that terrorists try to make their attacks look 'random' is commonly held. It makes intuitive sense. Random attacks may increase fear and increase the terrorist group's influence. This informal statement is given a formal theoretical rationale in this paper. Like the intuition it reflects, the formal theoretical rationale is logically appealing. It is also flawed. In reality, the randomization of terrorist attacks would cost the terrorist group more resources than a more stable schedule of attacks. Stability, not randomization, is the superior situation for the terrorist group. If terrorist groups recognize this, on average, the pattern of terrorist attacks over time must exhibit structure.
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Why is it important?
The idea that terrorist groups randomize their attacks is commonly held but refers to a situation that is fundamentally inferior for the terrorist group than one characterized by relative stability. The cycles of terrorism that have been highlighted, mainly within the economics literature, and the patterns that seem to characterize them are inconsistent with purely random terrorist action. The analysis provides an explanation for why structure and stability rather than randomness is observed.
Perspectives
In retrospect, this is my first contribution to the analysis of terrorism 'cycles'. I revisited the problem again in my other paper, "The Life Cycle of Terrorist Organizations," and in my most recent book, "The Economics of Terrorism". Using a some well-established reasoning from mainstream economics, I think I was able to show that the randomization of terrorist attacks is not something that should be expected for the rather straightforward reason that the terrorist group will find such a strategy to be inferior (and to require more resources) than a strategy, which whilst perhaps appearing to be random, is characterized more by structure and stability.
Dr Peter J Phillips
University of Southern Queensland
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks, Defense and Security Analysis, September 2010, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/14751798.2010.516542.
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