Theorizing India–US–China strategic triangle

What is it about?

In this paper we build on Robert Jervis’ concept of strategic triangles, relations between three states where from the point of view of each state the others are pivotal for its security or foreign policy behavior in a given region. We argue that triangles are important in influencing state behavior in the areas of balance of power, deterrence, arms races and status competition, and consider how these dimensions might interact. In this context, this article examines the US–India–China triangle, while also addressing to a lesser extent how other related triangles interlink with it, taking into account how China’s rise and increasing economic interdependence impact these relations.

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Why is it important?

Strategic triangles are a crucial yet neglected topic in International Relations. During the Cold War era, they elicited some attention especially in the context of the changing US-USSR-China triangular relationships. In the regional context they gained prominence as the triads of US-Pakistan- India, China-Pakistan-India, as well as US-Israel-Arab states were crucial triangular relationships impinging upon bipolar stability. Today, the emer- ging and ongoing trilateral relationships such as the US–India–China, India– Japan–China, and China–Pakistan–India deserve greater scholarly attention. One key challenge is the interlocking of some of these triangles involving additional states and thereby them becoming quadrilateral or larger in number involving multiple parties. The focus of this article is on the US – India–China triangle, although we make an effort to see how other interlink- ing triangles affect this relationship as well.