Application of digits based test to analyse presidential election data in Nigeria

What is it about?

This study examined the application of Benford’s Law to analyse the 2015 and 2019 presidential election data in Nigeria. Data obtained from the electoral body were analysed using frequency distribution and Spearman Rank Correlation tests at 0.05 level of significance.

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Photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash

Photo by Carlos Muza on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The study contributed to literature on the applicability of Benford’s Law in detecting anomalies in electoral data. As Nigeria continues to struggle with the problem of electoral integrity, this study can provide additional forensic tools and insight for the INEC, election observers and other stakeholders. This study has also provided a foundation for future research tailored towards developing more accurate measures of electoral fraud. However, since the digit based tests basically identify statistical anomalies and raise suspicion of fraud, the results of the digit based tests should be adopted as a complement to the information gathered from election audits, as well as other election reports from on-the-ground assessment.