What is it about?
Terrorist attack methods that have higher average numbers of expected fatalities are subject to more risk. It is important to determine the conditions that prompt a terrorist to choose a riskier action because these actions are expected to inflict more harm. We identify those points at which the terrorist may switch from a lower risk or less harmful attack method to a higher risk or more harmful attack method.
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Why is it important?
Terrorist actions inflict harm. It is important to determine the conditions that shape a terrorist's decision to choose a more harmful attack method. The paper applies a combination of orthodox and behavioral models of decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty to identify those points at which a terrorist will choose a more harmful attack method over a less harmful one.
Perspectives
This paper is our second that applies prospect theory to terrorist choice. Identifying some aspects of the decision-making process and the context that may prompt a terrorist to choose a more damaging attack method is important. In addition, I think that the paper also represents a relatively rare application of prospect theory outside of the laboratory and generates some insights into the theoretical foundations that characterize the relationship between stochastic dominance and prospect theory.
Dr Peter J Phillips
University of Southern Queensland
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis, Defence and Peace Economics, April 2015, Taylor & Francis,
DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888.
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