The Intifada: causes, consequences and future trends

What is it about?

In the first part of the paper I reflect on the main causes of the uprising, explaining why it took place only after more than twenty years of occupation. During the mid 1970s the Palestinians were on the road towards an uprising, but Sadat's peace initiative shuffled the cards. The Lebanon war caused a psychological change in the Palestinians' framework of mind, and induced them to open a civil rebellion. Of significance were the socio-economic conditions of the refugees, which put them in a position where they simply had nothing to lose. The second part of the essay analyses the effects of the uprising on the Palestinians, Israel, and the PLO. It also reflects on the PLO's change of status in the international arena. I argue that at the end of 1988 the PLO had a good opportunity to gain significant achievements leading to the establishment of a Palestinian entity, but this opportunity was wasted. I close by drawing attention to three parties whose positions are of growing importance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These are the Islamic fundamentalist movement; Syria; and the Israeli-Palestinians.

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Why is it important?

The article foresaw many developments in the Middle East, including the first Gulf War. I envisaged the war already in 1990. It also indicates the rise of Muslim fundamentalism

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